Opening Power Strategy — Complete Implementation & Backtest Results (2026-02-22)

OPENING POWER STRATEGY (Oliver Velez Method)

Source: YouTube https://youtu.be/6XtBCqBhQ-k (transcribed via youtube-ultimate skill)
Strategy doc: ~/clawd/projects/hedge/docs/OPENING_POWER_STRATEGY.md

STRICT ENTRY RULES (Henry-approved simplified version):

1. Pre-market scan: Find stocks with narrow SMA20/SMA200 on 2m bars
2. Bar 1 must open clearly above/below BOTH MAs (not between)
3. Bar 1 must be confirming elephant bar (green=long, red=short)
4. LONG entry: 1 penny above bar 1 HIGH | SHORT: 1 penny below bar 1 LOW
5. Stop: LONG = 1 penny below bar 1 LOW | SHORT: 1 penny above bar 1 HIGH
6. Exit: 3 pushes (new high above previous highest high for longs)
7. No setup = no trade

BACKEND: opening_power.py (~750 lines) — state detector, bar classifier, day simulator, backtester, scanner. APIs: POST /opening-power/backtest and /scan. Uses Postgres bar cache (market_bars_2m table).

FRONTEND: /strategy/opening-power — 3 tabs: Scanner, Backtester, Strategy Rules.

DATA: 24 tickers cached in Postgres (1.97M 2m bars, 270 trading days). 5 momentum tickers extended to 30 months (NVDA 293K, TSLA 297K, AVGO 208K, GOOG 228K, AMZN 261K bars).

BACKTEST 1-YEAR 24 TICKERS: 570 trades, 54% win rate, $14,122 net PnL. Top: AVGO +$2887 (6.44x PF), NVDA +$2314, TSLA +$2305, GOOG +$2227. Henry critique: modest vs buy-and-hold.

EXIT STRATEGY COMPARISON (30mo, 5 tickers, 9 strategies):
#1 Extended 60min: $26,339 (61% WR, 2.12x PF)
#2 Extended 30min: $24,710 (60% WR, 2.31x PF)
#3 Baseline 20min: $19,568 (61% WR, 2.42x PF)
#4 Fat bar trail: $17,282 (54% WR, 1.78x PF)
WORST: 1% trailing stop: -$38,334

KEY FINDINGS: 20min too short, 60min optimal (+35% profit). Trailing % stops fail. Fat bar trail viable. 5 pushes too greedy.

NEXT: Re-run exit tests on 3-month window for rapid iteration. Filter to momentum stocks only (skip HD, JNJ, MA).

Exit strategy test script: backend/scripts/test_exit_strategies.py